Economic Analysis Series No.169
THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Mar, 2003
  • "On the Nature of the Heisei Recession"
    • Kouichi Hamada
      • (Yale University)
  • "The Value of Bank Relationship
  • -A Study on the Hokkaido Takusyoku Bank's Failure-"
    • Masahiro Hori
      • (Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute,Cabinet Office,
        Japanese Government)
    • Tomoyuki Takahashi
      • (Asahi life insurance company)
  • "Income Variability and Consumption
  • -A Full Consumption Insurance Test Using Japanese Micro Data in the 1990s-"
    • Satoshi Shimizutani
      • (Counselor ,Training Institute of Economics ,Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office,
        Japanese Government)
  • "Comparison Among Bank Loans,
  • Money Supply and Other Fund Procurement Methods"
    • Yutaka Harada
      • (Exective Research Fellow , Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office,
        Japanese Government)
    • Shinichi Okamoto
      • (Nihon life insurance company)
  • "The Simultaneity problems in the Estimation of Effect of Public Capital
  • -A Review of the Japanese studies-"
    • Masayoshi Hayashi
      • (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, MeijiGakuin University)

The full text is written in Japanese.

(Abstract)

"On the Nature of the Heisei Recession"

The purpose of this paper is to inquire into possible causes of the Heisei Recession, the stagnation that has plagued the Japanese economy since the 1990s. As a preliminary step to interpret empirical analyses, one would need to understand by what linkages of causes and effects this recession has been brought about.

"The Value of Bank Relationship - A Study on the Hokkaido Takusyoku Bank's Failure-"

This paper empirically reassess the argument that the Japanese bank relationship has an economic value and main bank failure may cause client firms to incur a large economic loss. Through careful examination of firms' stock returns and financial statements around the HTB failure, we argue that the result of preceding studies overestimated the value of Japanese main bank relationship, and conclude that the value should not be overemphasized in the context of bailout policy discussion and systemic risk management.

"Income Variability and Consumption -A Full Consumption Insurance Test Using Japanese Micro Data in the 1990s-"

Using micro-level data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, this study tests the full consumption insurance hypothesis and quantifies the sources of insurance. The consumption full insurance hypothesis is strongly rejected for both total consumption and consumption by type of goods, which implies that Japanese households fail to smooth consumption. However, the deviation from full insurance is small. Saving is responsible for a larger part of change in head of household income.

"Comparison Among Bank Loans, Money Supply and Other Fund Procurement Methods"

It is often argued that Japan's deteriorated banking sector continues to seriously affect its economy, but few empirical studies support that argument. In this study, we compare the effects of bank loans, money supply (M2+CD) and other fund procurement methods (shares, securities and trade credits) on economic fluctuations by using vector autoregression models. The results imply that money has stronger effect on economic fluctuations than bank loans and the other fund procurement methods.

"The Simultaneity problems in the Estimation of Effect of Public Capital -A Review of the Japanese studies-"

This paper surveys the growing empirical literature on the production effects of public capital in Japan. Limiting our discussion to the estimation of aggregate production function, we focus on the issue of simultaneity of public capital, or 'reverse causation' from output to public capital, and highlight how the issue is conceived and tackled in the existing literature. As it turns out, the simultaneity of public capital is a cerebrated issue that very few understand properly.

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