Economic Analysis Series No.171
THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Decmber, 2003
  • "Who Supports Redistribution?"
    • Fumio Ohtake
      • (Osaka University Institute of Social & Economic Reserch)
    • Jun Tomioka
      • (Graduate School of Economics,Osaka University)
  • "Capitalization, Local Public Services and Regional Infrastructures:
    A Test for the Efficient Level of Regional Public Capital"
    • Masayoshi Hayashi
      • (Meiji Gakuin University)
  • "Explainig the Change in the Money Multiplier"
    • Yasuyuki Iida
      • (Faculty of Economics, Komazawa University;
        Visiting Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
    • Yutaka Harada
      • (Executive Research Fellow,Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
    • Koichi Hamada
      • (Yale University;
        Ex-President, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
  • "Stochastic Simulations using the ESRI Short-Run Model"
    • Masahiro Hori
      • (Cabinet Office)
    • Makoto Yamane
      • (Japan International Cooperation Agency)
    • Toshiyuki Tanabe
      • (Mitsui Knowledge Industry)
  • "Deflationary Expectations and Real Cost of Capital
    -Micro-Level Estimates of Investment Function in the1990s"
    • Satoshi Shimizutani
      • (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
    • Terai Akira
      • (University of Tokyo)
  • "The Economic Thought and Economic Policy during the Showa-Crisis:
    The Return to the Gold Standard Controversy in Japan Revisited"
    • Masazumi Wakatabe
      • (School of Political Science & Economics, Waseda University)
  • "A Survey on Issues of the FTPL(Fiscal theory of Price Level)"
    • Masaaki Kawagoe
      • (Special Research Officer, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
    • Noriki Hirose
      • (Ex-Executive Research Fellow,Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)

The full text is written in Japanese.

(Abstract)

"Who Supports Redistribution?"

Using an original dataset, we investigated the determinants of individual preferences over income redistribution in Japan. Even after controlling for income, risk-averse individuals and those who expect to be unemployed in the future show a strong tendency to support greater redistribution. Interaction of aging and mobility seems strong and important.

"Capitalization, Local Public Services and Regional Infrastructures:A Test for the Efficient Level of Regional Public Capital"

that its net, not gross, benefits are capitalized into land rents. This paper also demonstrate that we validly employ the method by Brueckner (1982) to test the optimal level of regional public capital. We then apply the method to the case of regional infrastructure in Japan.

"Explainig the Change in the Money Multiplier"

The Japanese government's monetary policies do not to seem to have been effective in eradicating deflation and increasing the money supply. A decrease in the money multiplier is said to be one reason for this. This paper will explain why the money multiplier declined in the 1990s, using decompositions and VAR models. We obtained the following conclusions. First, the decrease of the money multiplier in the 1990s was explained by the propensity of households to hold cash. Second, the expected inflation rate had a significant influence on the money multiplier both in the 1990s and 1980s. Third, the amount of bad loans also had a significant influence in 1990s. That influence, however, could be quantitatively negligible.

"Stochastic Simulations using the ESRI Short-Run Model"

This paper reports the result of some stochastic simulations using a tentatively modified version of the ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of Japanese Economy, which was released in 2001. Repeatedly calculated multipliers indicate that the multipliers of an econometric model should be interpreted with confidence intervals.

"Deflationary Expectations and Real Cost of Capital -Micro-Level Estimates of Investment Function in the1990s"

This study estimates firm-level real cost of capital in the 1990s and confirms that deflationary expectations, especially in the second half of the decade, canceled out the effect of the loose monetary policy and dampened business investment.

"The Economic Thought and Economic Policy during the Showa-Crisis: The Return to the Gold Standard Controversy in Japan Revisited"

This paper explores the role of economic thought in economic policy making during the period up to and including the Showa Crisis, the Japanese counterpart of the Great Depression. The overall majority supported the pursuit of the deflationary policies, which was finally materialized by the Hamaguchi cabinet. The paperattributed the cause of these policies to two sets of ideologies, the Gold Standard mentality and liquidationism. The exit from the Crisis required the exit from these ideologies.

"A Survey on Issues of the FTPL(Fiscal theory of Price Level)"

This paper surveys and examines theory, empirical evidence and policy implications of FTPL. FTPL's argument that government budget constraint determines price level is vulnerable to changes in assumptions. Moreover, empirically, it is unclear whether Non-Ricardian type fiscal policy, which is a critical assumption of the argument, is actually adopted. This paper casts a doubt on validity of FTPL's policy implications by arguing that the current Japanese macro policies are, in fact, consistent with prescriptions given by FTPL.

  • 1-6-1 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8914, Japan.
    Tel: +81-3-5253-2111