Economic Analysis Series No.181
THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

January, 2009
"Intended Fertility and Birth Behavior"
Matsuura Tsukasa
"An Empirical Analysis of the Will of Career Advancement of the Japanese Female Core-Workers"
Hiroki Yasuda
"Household savings, Corporate savings and Government savings
- Substitutability of Savings by Sectors in Japan and the United Sates "
Yoichi Matsubayashi
"An Evaluation of the 2004 Public Pension Reform: Views from Pension Obligation"
Akihiro Kawase
Shin Kimura
"Investigating Foreign Workers in Japan by Municipal Data
-Their Regional Distributions and Effects on Regional Economies-"
Masaaki Kawagoe
Ayumu Hoshino
"The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy (2008 version)
- Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses-"
Fumikazu Hida
Kenji Tanaka
Hisano Umei
Koichiro Iwamoto
Hironori Shigihara
"Dynare and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Application to New Keynesian Models "
Koiti Yano

The full text is written in Japanese.

(Abstract)

"Intended Fertility and Birth Behavior"

This paper has three purposes. First, in using Butz and Ward model for the analysis, unlike the previous researches, we focus on birth intention. Specifically, we aim to investigate the relationship between the household's incomes and/or women's personal income and the behavior of giving birth of the women who have intention to have children. Second, we examine the effects of social and economic factors on birth intention. Finally, we consider the factors causing the gap between the intended number of children (intended number of births) and actual number of children.

"An Empirical Analysis of the Will of Career Advancement of the Japanese Female Core-Workers"

In this paper, we examined the will of career advancement of the Japanese female core-workers (Sougoushoku). The main results obtained from the analyses of this paper are the following two points. First, the women who want the work-life-balance (WLB) to continue the current job do not want to be a manager even if they are core-workers. Secondly, on the other hand, the women who want the equal treatment between women and men in the workplace to continue the current job want to be a manager. (85words)

"Household savings, Corporate savings and Government savings
- Substitutability of Savings by Sectors in Japan and the United Sates
"

This article describes an empirical examination of the substitutability of savings among household, corporate, and government sectors in Japan and the United States. First, the theoretical micro-foundations were constructed, in which each sector behaves under the intertemporal optimization. Empirical investigations were conducted based on the theoretical formation. The estimation results indicate that changes in corporate savings induced an offsetting effect on personal savings to some degree in both countries. On the other hand, the substitutability of savings between household and government is not clearly recognized in both countries.

"An Evaluation of the 2004 Public Pension Reform: Views from Pension Obligation"

In this paper, we estimate public pension obligations in Japan using three indices named the open-group, the closed-group, and the plan-termination unfunded obligations and we evaluate Japan's 2004 public pension reform. The reform cleared away obligations of the open-group measure through the introduction of a fixed contribution program and an automatic adjustment of benefit levels. By the closed-group measure continuing the system with the past and current generation, the reform reduces obligations to ¥376 trillion. Measuring with the plan-termination, to which the abolition of the present system is required, the reform reduces obligations to ¥419 trillion.

"Investigating Foreign Workers in Japan by Municipal Data
-Their Regional Distributions and Effects on Regional Economies-
"

Ratios of foreign to Japanese workers are found to be approximately log-normally distributed over municipalities, and their joint distribution of 2000 and 2003 shows a sign of moving toward bimodality. The high ratios are observed in small as well as large cities, and those for Brazilian workers are highly correlated with value of manufactured goods shipments. However, their effects on manufacturing industries' value added are estimated to still remain limited: 1.8 per cent at the maximum and only six municipalities with above 0.5 per cent.

"The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy (2008 version)
- Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses
-"

This paper describes the basic structure and multipliers of the 2008 revised version of The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy, which was first released in 1998 (Hori et al. (1998)).

The model is basically a demand-oriented, traditional Keynesian-type model with an IS-LM-BP framework; however, it adopts recent developments in econometrics, such as co-integration, and error-correction to ensure long-run equilibrium. The use of the new techniques contributes toward the stabilization of the long-run behaviors in the model. Otherwise, the short-run properties have not largely changed from the previous versions.

The following are some of the multipliers of our policy simulations. The peak of fiscal multiplier, i.e., the effect of government investments on GDP, is about 1.1 in Japan. The effect of income tax reduction is smaller due to its leak to household savings. These characteristics of multipliers are not significantly different between 2006 and 2008 version. However, the effect of monetary policy dont become evident as time passes, this is a small difference from previous one.

"Dynare and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Application to New Keynesian Models"

This paper is an introduction to Dynare and New Keynesian, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In recent years, micro-founded macroeconomic models is a hot topic in monetary-fiscal policy analysis, for example, a simple new Keynesian model (new IS-LM) and an extended model (hybrid new IS-LM). This paper shows simulating new IS-LM and hybrid new IS-LM using Dynare.

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