Economic Analysis Series No.190
THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

January, 2016
Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of Success in Full-Time Job-Search for Japanese University Students
Hiroko ARAKI
Hiroki YASUDA
Does a Risk-Averse Person Get Married Sooner or Later?
Kazuma SATO
The Empirical Study of Time Spent Studying for Children of Immigrants in Japan
Makiko NAKAMURO
Kenji ISHIDA
Ayumi TAKENAKA
Tomohiko INUI
The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy (2015 version): Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses
Koji HAMADA
Takashi HANAGAKI
Masahiro HORI
Koichiro IWAMOTO
Taisuke KAMEDA
Ruriko YOKOYAMA
A practical tool for policy analysis: The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy
Takashi HANAGAKI
Masahiro HORI
Koichiro IWAMOTO
Estimation of Annual Consumption Expenditures by Japanese Households Based on the Microdata from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey:Estimation Methods and Illustrative Tables and Figures
Junya HAMAAKI
Masahiro HORI
Koichiro IWAMOTO
Keiko MURATA
Takeshi NIIZEKI
Fumihiko SUGA

The full text is written in Japanese.

(Abstract)

Empirical Evidence on the Determinants of Success in Full-Time Job-Search for Japanese University Students

By Hiroko ARAKI and Hiroki YASUDA

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of success for Japanese university students at finding full-time jobs before graduation, and discuss the shape of an effective job-search assistance policy. We employ micro-data in order to empirically verify whether success at being hired for a full-time position is decided by the individual’s characteristics, such as human capital and academic skills, or by the way job-search activity is carried out (such as the starting time and the standards when choosing what company to apply for). Our findings show that the determinants of successful job search greatly differ by major and type of university. Students of Humanities and Social Sciences fields are more likely to successfully obtain a full-time job the earlier they start searching. Students of Humanities and Social Sciences in middle and top rank private universities, as well as those in national and public universities, and students of Natural Sciences in top private universities, benefit from advice regarding the criteria they should consider when choosing a potential workplace. Humanities and Social Sciences students in low rank private universities, and also in public uni-versities, benefit from improvements in their academic skills. Students of Humanities and Social Sciences can be expected to obtain significant gains from direct support by the university. In contrast, the effect of this type of assistance for students of Natural Sciences is rather limited. Furthermore, enthusiastic involvement in extracurricular activities tends to have a negative effect on the success of Natural Sciences students at finding a full-time job.

JEL Classification Number:J24, I21, J20
Key Words:determinants of a finding full-time job, job-search activity, comparative study between university major

Does a Risk-Averse Person Get Married Sooner or Later?

By Kazuma SATO

Abstract

This study employs the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS) to examine the effect of risk preferences on the timing of marriage. While many empirical studies in Japan and other countries have analyzed the effect of risk preferences on smoking and drinking, few studies have explored the effect of risk preferences on the timing of marriage in Japan. Schmidt (2008) and Spivey (2010) use the mate-search model and reveal that a risk-averse person gets married sooner. This study clarifies two results. First, even considering the individual fixed effect, it was found that risk-averse men and women get married sooner. Second, the simulation of Cox’s proportional hazard model and the analysis of marriage conditions at ages 40 and 50 reveal that risk preferences affect not only the timing of marriage but also the marriage rate later in life.

JEL Classification Number:J11, J12, J13
Key Word:Risk Preferences, Marriage, Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model

The Empirical Study of Time Spent Studying for Children of Immigrants in Japan

By Makiko NAKAMURO, Kenji ISHIDA, Ayumi TAKENAKA and Tomohiko INUI

Abstract

This study analyzes the educational achievement of immigrant children in Japan. Since foreign migrants began to enter Japan in large numbers in the early 1990s, their children, or the second generation born or raised in Japan, have largely come of age. A growing number of studies have pointed out various problems associated with the educational achievement of immigrant children, such as parental commitment to education and social networks. Since most of these studies are limited in scale based on qualitative observations of a particular population in a particular region, however, we do not know how immigrant children actually formulated their habits of studying. In this study, we focus on school-aged immigrant children who have resided in Japan for at least ten years and are proficient in the Japanese language. Using data from a unique and nationally representative dataset, the Longitudinal Survey of Babies in the 21st Century, we analyzed the effect of parental commitment to education and social networks on their school performance, measured by the hours spent studying at home, holding other control variables constant. The results suggest that parental commitment to children’s education and support network are indeed important in determining the number of study hours for both foreign and Japanese children. However, once unobserved individual traits are controlled for, such as cultural views and orientation on schooling, motivation, and genetic endowments, parental commitment and support network are no longer crucial. In addition, it is also found that this mechanism to formulate the habit of studying is not unique for migrant children, indicating that it is indifferent from native-Japanese children.

JEL Classification Number:I24, J15
Key Words:migrant children, time spent studying, fixed-effects model

The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy (2015version): Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses

By Koji HAMADA, Takashi HANAGAKI, Masahiro HORI, Koichiro IWAMOTO, Taisuke KAMEDA, and Ruriko YOKOYAMA

Abstract

This paper describes the basic structure and multipliers of the 2015 version of The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy, which was first released in 1998.

The model is basically a demand-oriented, traditional Keynesian model with IS-LM-BP framework; however, it adopts recent developments in econometrics, such as co-integration and error correction to ensure long-run properties of the model.

The followings are some of the multipliers of policy simulations. The fiscal multiplier, i.e., the effect of government investments on GDP, is 1.14 in the first year. The effect of income tax reduction is slightly smaller (than that of the fiscal expenditures) due to its leak to household savings. 1% point rise of short-term interest rate reduces real GDP by 0.32% in the first year.

Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in Japan on Real GDP
Table:Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in Japan on Real GDP

JEL Classification Number: C5, E17
Key Words: Macroeconometric model, Policy Multipliers

A practical tool for policy analysis: The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy

By Takashi HANAGAKI, Masahiro HORI, and Koichiro IWAMOTO

Abstract

After seminal critics by Lucas (1976) and by Sims (1980) on traditional macroeconometric models, DSGE and VAR models have been developed and widely used as substitutes for the traditional models. However, those substitute models still have several problems to overcome for practical use in economic policy analyses. Basing on the concept of “Suite of Models,” which is nowadays widely shared among central banks and governments, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) of Cabinet Office, Japanese Government, has been developing and utilizing multiple types of models, including DSGE, VAR, as well as traditional models. This paper briefly reviews the critics of macroeconometric models and indicates some limitations and problems of DSGE and VAR models in practical policy analyses, and then clarify the positioning and contributions of the ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of the Japanese Economy, a traditional macroeconometric model.

JEL Classification Number: C5, E17
Key Words: Macroeconometric model, DSGE model, VAR model, Suite of Models

Estimation of Annual Consumption Expenditures by Japanese Households Based on the Microdata from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey:Estimation Methods and Illustrative Tables and Figures

By Junya HAMAAKI, Masahiro HORI, Koichiro IWAMOTO, Keiko MURATA, Takeshi NIIZEKI, and Fumihiko SUGA

Abstract

An issue that has attracted growing attention in Japan is the increasing economic inequality among households against the background of dramatic economic and social changes as a result of liberalization and globalization. This paper presents details on a dataset of Japanese households annual consumption expenditure that we constructed based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) and to provide an overview of our estimation methods. More specifically, we constructed a micro dataset of households’ consumption covering all years from 1983 to 2012 making adjustments for imputed rent, consumption seasonality, survey fatigue, and sampling ratio. Our findings based on the dataset can be summarized as follows:

  1. (1) The mean annual consumption expenditure of individual households in Japan has been gradually declining since the early 1990s. A possible explanation is the shrinking of household sizes, since the mean of equivalent consumption appears to have been broadly stable.
  2. (2) While the variance and Gini coefficient of total household consumption look stable throughout our observation period, those for equivalent consumption of non-durable goods increased until the early 2000s.
  3. (3) The shape of the consumption path over households’ life-cycle is hump-shaped (with a peak at around age fifty) and stable regardless of the household head cohort.
  4. (4) Consumption inequality among households appears to be greater among households with older heads.
  5. (5) The age-saving rate profiles differ considerably across different cohorts.

JEL Classification Number: D12, D30, E21
Key Words: Family Income and Expenditure Survey, Microdata, Household Consumption, Income/Expenditure Distribution, Japan

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