ERI Discussion Paper Series No.88
Updating Study on the Impact of Trade Liberalization in APEC

September 1999

CGE Modeling Unit, ERI/EPA

Kanemi Ban
(Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University;
Senior Visiting Fellow, Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency)
Sigeru Ohtsubo
(Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University;
Visiting Fellow, Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency)
Minoru Ono
(Research Fellow, Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency)
Mantarou Matsuya
(Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency)
Shin_ichi Yamaguchi
(Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency)

(Abstract)

This paper presents a preliminary simulation for the economic impact of trade liberalization in APEC in line with the report on "Assessing APEC Trade Liberalization and Facilitation - 1999 Update" adopted by the APEC in September 1999.

Impact of Trade Liberalization in APEC, a research project that used a CGE model to assess the impacts of "Manila Action Plan (MAPA)," was submitted to the Ministerial Meeting in November 1997. Facing several new demands to update the existing CGE component of the study, the Economic Research Institute of the Economic Planning Agency proposed to launch an update in 1999. It was desirable to revise the existing CGE estimate on the impact of APEC Individual Action Plans (IAPs) on each individual member economy, including the new members, once they submit their IAPs. The database of the CGE Model used in the last study was updated in December 1998.

Our goals in this paper are the threefold. The first goal is to calculate tariff data of APEC members, matching to the latest Individual Action Plans. The calculation is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model's methodology. The second is to compare the economic effects of MAPA estimated by means of the Version 4 database to that by the Version 3 database. We try to examine whether the models used in the previous study are still appropriate to the new database. The last goal is to estimate the economic effects of the updated IAPs in various models.


Structure of the whole text(PDF-Format 1file)

  1. Abstract別ウィンドウで開きます。 (PDF-Format 489 KB)
  2. page1
    1. Introduction
  3. page3
    2. Tariff Data Calculation
    1. page15
  4. page21
    3. Model Building
    1. page26
  5. page29
    4. Simulations
    1. page40
    2. page44
  6. page51
    Appendix: Results of Tariff Rates Calculation
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