ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.228
Growth Factors of "Most Populated" Countries and Their Impacts on Developed Countries

Mantaro Matsuya
Special Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

The full text is written in Japanese.


Populous countries such as China and India have been developing rapidly and have influenced the world economy at the time of the globalization.

What sorts of factors have made those countries achieve high growth? How much influence have they had on developed countries so far? We analyzed these questions quantitatively via the CGE model.

Chapter 1 discusses several aspects of the analyses of this thesis. Chapter 2 describes the framework of the analyses. Chapters 3 and 4 examine factors concerning development of those countries, and influences they have had on the developed countries.

The conclusion: the contribution of technological progress is large for populous countries' economic growth. Influences on the developed countries were positive for both production and consumption, but they were not so big in the 1990s, the period we analyzed.

Every country must have the ability for flexible correspondence as a policy implication. For instance, we performed a trial calculation that concluded that developed nations will lose profits from the growth of most populous countries if wages are sticky.

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