ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.243
How large is the impact of private sector's investment in IT?
Simulations of Japa's growth path by macro econometric models

Akihiko SHINOZAKI
Professor, Kyushu University(Visiting Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)
Nobuo IIZUKA
Senior Economist, Nikkei Digital Media, Inc.

The full text is written in Japanese.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to simulate Japan's economic growth path to 2020 based on the macro econometric models that incorporate IT capital stock and network effects. For these purpose we build three types of macro econometric model modifying a model prepared by Japan Center for Economic Research, and then we simulate base line growth paths and those in the acceleration of private sector's IT investment. These simulations revealed that IT assets and network effects significantly influenced the economy and that the economy has some potential to grow faster by a half percentage point or more than around one percent annual growth rate of the base line forecast given acceleration of private sector's IT investment.

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