ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.256
Personnel Costs of Government- Simulation Analysis -

(Senior Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office)

The full text is written in Japanese.


Real personnel costs of the government in the future will be affected by the current age structure of government employees.

With the total number of employees fixed, personnel costs of the local government will decrease by 7% in the next 10 years as the age structure of local government officials will get younger. On the other hand, personnel costs of the central government will stay unchanged. Retirement allowances of the local government will decrease as most of the baby boomers have already retired. The rate of changes in terms of wages and retirement allowances is varied significantly among prefectures. Flattening the wage structure will reduce personnel costs more sharply when the current share of aged employees is larger.

In reforming personnel costs of the government, a quantitative analysis will be necessary in considering the structure of employees and wages as well as administrative needs in each region and category.

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