ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.270
Declining Long-Term Employment in Japan

Daiji Kawaguchi
Hitotsubashi University, RIETI, TCER, and IZA
Yuko Ueno
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Government of Japan


This paper documents the secular decline of years of job tenure in Japan based on micro data from two representative government surveys, namely the household-based Employment Status Survey (ESS) and the establishment-based Basic Survey of Wage Structure (BSWS). Workers born in 1970 have experienced about 20 percent fewer years of job tenure than those born in 1945, based on an analysis of ESS data. The decline of the long-term employment relationship is uniformly observed across firm sizes and industries. Among job changers, the fraction of voluntary job changes, as well as that of job changes associated with wage increase, has been stable.

Structure of the whole text(PDF-Format 1 File)

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  2. Abstract
  3. page2
    1. Introduction
  4. page4
    2. Two Data Sets on Job Tenure
  5. page7
    3 Average Years of Job Tenure by Birth Cohorts
    1. page7
      3.1 Basic Results
    2. page9
      3.2 Controlling for Years of Education
    3. page10
      3.3 Proportion of Permanent-Regular / Nonpermanent-RegularWorkers
  6. page13
    4. Filling the Gap between the ESS and the BSWS
    1. page13
      4.1 Differences in Estimation Results and Data Coverage
      1. page13
        i) Shift of the tenure distribution among recent cohorts
      2. page14
        ii) Increase in the sample discrepancy among recent cohorts
    2. page15
      4.2 Estimation Results Based on the ESS with Weights
  7. page16
    5. Falling tide sinks all boats
  8. page18
    6. Positive Job Hopping?
  9. page19
    7. Concluding Remarks
  10. page21
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