ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.327
The Effects of Disaster Risk Information on the Real Estate Market in Japan: A Hedonic Approach

Keiichi Sato
Associate Professor, School of Network and Information, Senshu University
Hiroaki Matsuura
Provost and Vice President, Shoin University
Yozo Tanaka
Research Officer, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Japan
Shingo Nagamatsu
Professor, Faculty of Safety Science, Kansai University
Masahiro Ooi
Senior Researcher, Disaster Risk Research Unit, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
Miho Ohara
Senior Researcher, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute(PWRI)
Yuu Hiroi
Associate Professor, Disaster mitigataion Research Center, Nagoya University

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of three different public disaster risk information (earthquakes, floods and landslides) on land, housing, and rent prices in Japan. Using two levels of risk information data (250m-mesh and municipality level), we analyze the following effects: the 30-year probability of an earthquake with a Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale of upper-6 and more, the 30-year probability of an above-floor flood inundation, and the sediment disaster hazard area on published land price, real estate transaction price, and rent price published online.

We find the positive effect of the probability of an earthquake and an above-floor flood inundation on published land and other prices in general, but find that these prices significantly decrease in the area where the 30-year probability of an earthquake and an above-floor flood inundation are particularly high (50% and more). We also find that the sediment disaster hazard area decreases land and other prices across different specifications.

The further research is needed to better understand how people receive and process different disaster risk information and choose their residential location.

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