ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.330
Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the Production Recovery Dynamics

Tomohiko INUI
Professor, Gakushuin University
Visiting Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office
Research Fellow, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
Master's Student, Tokyo Institute of Technology


This paper analyze the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the production recovery dynamics in the establishments that locate in not only the area of distress but also the area of non-distress using monthly establishment-level data “Current Survey of Production” and yearly firm-level data “Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities”. As a result of hazard analysis that thought of production recovery to the pre-quake level as “hazard”, it revealed that the location of establishment and its headquarters had no impact on its speed of production recovery. When without controlling the firm characteristics, the estimation results show that the establishments located further away from a seismic center of the earthquake recover their production faster, but the results are not supported once the characteristics of its headquarters were controlled. In addition, the establishment belonging to the firm that had higher R&D intensity, more employment in its headquarters, and higher ratio of current assets recovered its production faster. Moreover, the establishments located in Miyagi prefecture, or Tokyo prefecture seemed to recover their production faster than these in other prefecture. These results implies that the establishment not only belonging to its headquarters with a solid production capacity but also in the area with industry agglomeration recover its production to the pre-quake level faster.

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