ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.351
Do Digital Technologies Complement or Substitute for Human Labor?

Seiko Kitahara
Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Japan
Toshiaki Shinozaki
Senior Research Fellow, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Japan

Abstract

  • We conduct difference-in-differences analyses on the effect of the introduction of AI on hours worked, employment, and the non-routineness of tasks based on an original online survey of workers in Japan.
  • Our estimation results show that (a) the introduction of AI reduced hours worked, (b)increased the non-routineness of jobs in terms of the repetitiveness of tasks, and (c) required more regular employees, even though it had no significant effect on total employment.
  • These results suggest that AI acts as both a complement to and a substitute for human labor.

Structure of the whole text(PDF-Format 1 File)

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  2. page3
    1. INTRODUCTION
  3. page7
    2. DATA
    1. page7
      2.1. Data Collection
    2. page9
      2.2. Construction of Non-Routine Task Intensity Measure
      1. page9
        2.2.1. Survey Design for Quantification
      2. page10
        2.2.2. Calculation of Non-Routine Task Intensity
    3. page11
      2.3. Descriptive Statistics
      1. page11
        2.3.1. Histograms
      2. page11
        2.3.2. Crosstables
  4. page12
    3. THE MODEL
  5. page16
    4. ESTIMATION RESULTS
    1. page16
      4.1. Effect on Hours Worked
    2. page17
      4.2. Effect on Non-Routine Task Intensity
    3. page17
      4.3. Effect on Employment
    4. page18
      4.4. Estimation Results by Occupation
  6. page20
    5. CONCLUSION
  7. page22
    REFERENCES
  8. page24
    FIGURES AND TABLES
  9. page40
    APPENDIX 1
  10. page41
    APPENDIX 2
  11. page42
    APPENDIX 3
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