GOVERNMENT PLAN OF FINANCIAL STABILIZATION FOR RUSSIA IN 1995

September, 1996
Andrei Illarionov
(Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia)

(INTRODUCTION)

In 1995 Russia entered the fourth year of its radical transformation from the centrally planned economy to a market one. Since the start of economic reform by the Gaidar's governmental team in late 1991 -early 1992 the Russian economy has changed dramatically. One can see a set of deep changes in economic performance, employment structure, output trends, enterprise behavior, mentality of both government and managerial personnel. But it is clear that a significant adjustment is ahead and should be done in a future.

During the first three years of the transformation certain progress was achieved in three main directions of the classical economic reform package: internal and external liberalization of the economy, financial, and more widely, macroeconomic stabilization, and institutional changes. But by extent of speed of economic transformation from the viewpoint of international standards the Russian reform turned out to be quite gradual and full of principal compromises. For example, the first, or even preliminary, target of the reform, namely financial stabilization, is still not reached yet. Especially limited results were achieved in 1994 that allows to call it "lost year''. In fact last year there was observed even the backward movement in the reform process, which led to a substantial worsening of economic performance in the last quarter of 1994.

The poor economic performance in 1994 did not leave the Russian government any possibility to survive in coming parliamentary elections due to be in December 1995. It enforced the government to undertake unprecedented measures to get reasonable economic fruits by autumn 1995 to meet public demand satisfactory. That is why in the mid-September 1994 a new Government plan of a short-term economic policy was elaborated and its implementation began almost immediately.

So the present paper covers correspondingly: the first part - the Russian economic performance through 1994, the second part - the Government plan of financial stabilization in 1995, and the third part - two attempts of its implementation in late 1994 - early 1995.


Structure of the whole text (PDF-Format 4file)

  1. page1
    1.INTRODUCTION別ウィンドウで開きます。(PDF-Format 73 KB)
  2. page2
    2.ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 1994
    1. page2
      2.1 Federal Budget
    2. page5
      2.2 Inter-Enterprise Arrears
    3. page6
      2.3 Credit and Money
    4. page7
      2.4 Prices
    5. page8
      2.5 Industrial Output
    6. page10
      2.6 Employment and Unemployment
    7. page11
      2.7 Foreign Trade and Currency Exchange
  3. page13
    3.GOVERNMENT PLAN OF FINANCIAL STABILIZATION IN 1995
    1. page13
      3.1 The "Summer" Program and "Autumn" Plan
    2. page15
      3.2 Mechanism of the Stabilization
  4. page18
    4.IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLAN
    1. page18
      4.1 First Attempt
    2. page20
      4.2 Second Attempt
  5. page22
    5.CONCLUSION
  6. page24
    Table & Figure(1)別ウィンドウで開きます。(PDF-Format 477 KB)
  7. page28
    Table & Figure(2)別ウィンドウで開きます。(PDF-Format 377 KB)
  8. page31
    Table & Figure(3)別ウィンドウで開きます。(PDF-Format 211 KB)
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