ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.308
消費の退職パズルは日本でも見られるか?農業経営統計調査個票に基づく分析

2014年2月
  • 堀 雅博内閣府経済社会総合研究所上席主任研究官
  • 村田 啓子内閣府経済社会総合研究所客員主任研究官、首都大学東京大学院社会科学研究科教授

要旨

本論文では、農業経営統計調査の世帯個票データを活用し、所謂、「消費の退職パズル」が我が国においても観察されるか、また観察されるとすればそうなる理由は何なのかを検証した。比較的長期間のパネル・データを構築することにより、観測期間中に実際に世帯主の退職を経験した世帯の行動を分析することが可能になった。分析の結果、我が国においても、世帯支出水準は引退前後である程度低下することが確認できた。更に、引退前後で生じる世帯構成の変化は、そうした支出の低下のごく一部しか説明できない。退職後の支出の低下の程度が所得低下の程度と強く関係していることから、退職後に生じる生活スタイルや選好の変化も支出低下の主たる説明要因になるとは考え難い。支出の低下が退職時に保有する金融資産の少ない世帯でより顕著に見られることは、退職時の所得と支出の相関(同時下落)が予想外の所得の落ち込みを一因としている可能性を示唆しているが、一方で、恒常所得仮説の想定とは異なり、将来の所得低下が分かっていても十分な貯蓄をする規律を保てない世帯が存在する可能性も否定できない。

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消費の退職パズルは日本でも見られるか?農業経営統計調査個票に基づく分析別ウィンドウで開きます。(PDF形式 286 KB)

全文の構成

  1. 1ページ
    Abstract
  2. 2ページ
    1. Introduction
  3. 4ページ
    2. Data
  4. 6ページ
    3. Baseline specification and consumption changes at retirement
  5. 9ページ
    4. What explains the puzzle?
    1. 9ページ
      4.1 Effects of changes in household demographics
    2. 10ページ
      4.2 Changes in lifestyle/preferences?
    3. 11ページ
      4.3 Insufficient wealth accumulation?
    4. 11ページ
      4.4 Disentangling the determinants of the decline in consumption
    5. 13ページ
      4.5 Was the retirement a “surprise”?
  6. 14ページ
    5. Conclusion
  7. 16ページ
    Reference
  8. 18ページ
    Figure 1. Changing pattern of income, consumption, and working hours ofhouseholds whose head retired at some point during our observation
  9. 19ページ
    Table 1. Sample statistics (Based on data from 1995 to 2003)
  10. 20ページ
    Table 1. Sample statistics (continued)
  11. 21ページ
    Table 2. Do households' income and consumption decline at retirement in Japan?
  12. 22ページ
    Table 3. How was the consumption decline correlated with the income decline at retirement?
  13. 22ページ
    Table 4. How did the impact of retirement on income and consumption differ between householdswith high savings and households with low savings?
  14. 23ページ
    Table 5. How did the impact of retirement on consumption differ among households? With low/high savings, a large/small income drop, and with/without a lump-sum retirement allowance
    1. 23ページ
      5-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
    2. 23ページ
      5-2. Including control households
  15. 24ページ
    Table 6. How did the impact of retirement on consumption differ among households? With low savings, a large/small income drop, expected/unexpected retirement
    1. 24ページ
      6-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
    2. 24ページ
      6-2. Including control households
  16. 25ページ
    Appendix A. Estimates for the growth rates of income and consumption
    1. 25ページ
      Table A1. Do households' income and consumption decline at retirement in Japan?
    2. 26ページ
      Table A2. How was the consumption decline correlated with the income decline at retirement?
    3. 26ページ
      Table A3. How did the impact of retirement on income and consumption differ between householdswith high savings and households with low savings?
    4. 27ページ
      Table A4. How did the impact of retirement on consumption differ among households? With low/high savings, a large/small income drop, and with/without a lump-sum retirement allowance
      1. 27ページ
        A4-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
      2. 27ページ
        A4-2. Including control households
    5. 28ページ
      Table A5. How did the impact of retirement on consumption differ among households? With low savings, a large/small income drop, expected/unexpected retirement
      1. 28ページ
        A5-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
      2. 28ページ
        A5-2. Including control households
  17. 29ページ
    Appendix B. Estimates for the food expenditures
    1. 29ページ
      Table B1. Do households' food expenditures decline at retirement in Japan?
    2. 29ページ
      Table B2. Are households' food expenditures correlated with the income decline at retirement?
    3. 29ページ
      Table B3. How did the impact of retirement on income and food expenditures differ betweenhouseholds with high savings and households with low savings?
    4. 30ページ
      Table B4. How did the impact of retirement on food expenditures differ among households? With low/high savings, a large/small income drop, and with/without a lump-sum retirement allowance
    5. 30ページ
      B4-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
    6. 30ページ
      B4-2. Including control households
    7. 31ページ
      Table B5. How did the impact of retirement on food expenditures differ among households? With low savings, a large/small income drop, expected/unexpected retirement
    8. 31ページ
      B5-1. Only households whose head retired at some point during the observation period
    9. 31ページ
      B5-2. Including control households
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